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THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION: A THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL
 
Covid-19 pandemic has affected many areas in terms of business models, business priorities and supply chain management approaches in world. Zhang et al. (2017) remarks that electric industry is one of the most significant pillars of economic development of nations and almost all economies are electricity dependent. Projections also show that this dependency will go up (World Energy Outlook 2019; Brewer, 2021; New Energy Outlook 2020, International Energy Outlook 2019, 2019). In this study, changes in electricity usage in 3 main areas (household, trading and manufacturing) during the Covid19 period in three different districts in Kocaeli between January 2019 and August 2021. Weekly consumption data of these districts are analysed by utilizing threshold regression model via Stata 14 software package. The effect of curfews on electricity consumption are exposed basis on five threshold periods which are exhibited by regression model. Results show that threshold regression model has reveals two threshold points in household; three in manufacturing; two in manufacturing and commercial; and three in commercial consumptions. These results are in parallel with countermeasures taken by government in Turkey. Although five main periods (mainly curfews and normalisation periods) are observed from 11 March 2020 till 31 July 2021, electricity consumption behaviour was less sensitive to these changes as expected. In overall, after Covid-19 pandemic, electricity consumption reduced 24,6% in household and 40,6% in manufacturing sector. In contrast, commercial consumption increased 8,2%. In terms of standard deviation, deviation of household and manufacturing-commercial mixture increased 17,8% and 27,6% respectively after Covid-19. On the other hand, deviation of manufacturing and commercial consumptions reduced dramatically (63,6% and 73,1%).

Anahtar Kelimeler: Electricity consumption, Covid-19, Threshold regression



 


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